Rookie Report: Breaking Down The Big 4 WRs

Wow, this is my first email going out to an actual AUDIENCE! To the 25 of you who are subscribed to Moves, just wanted to say thank you for reading my stuff. It means a lot!

If you missed last week’s post, it was the first writeup in my Rookie Report series, where I share everything I’ve learned about these prospects after studying them incessantly for the last 30 days.

Full disclosure, this writeup was originally going to cover the top NINE rookie WRs. But as I wrote about these top four guys, the word count went up…and up…and up, until it was time to call it an email.

So…

Today, I’ll break down the fantasy outlook for the 4 rookie WRs selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. 

During my research, I relied heavily on a few different tools and metrics that I find super helpful when trying to identify talented players. I’ll be referring to each of the following throughout this email:

PlayerProfiler Comparison: aggregates physical attributes, college production, and workout metrics to find each player’s most similar peer at his position.

Pro Football Focus (PFF Grade): a play-by-play evaluation metric that quantifies how well the player performed individually on each snap, independent of team results or box score stats. 0-100 scale.

Relative Athletic Score (RAS): a metric created by Kent Lee Platte that can easily and intuitively gauge a player’s athletic abilities relative to the position they play. 0-10 scale.

And some other metrics that I’ll explain as I go.

Enough - let’s talk wide receivers. 

Travis Hunter (Drafted 1.02, 2nd overall)

Beating a dead horse here, but Travis Hunter is a generational prospect, special as both a wide receiver and as a cornerback. The big question that looms for fantasy is how the Jaguars will deploy him. Per Head Coach Liam Coen, Hunter will be used “primarily on offense”, which is good news for his outlook as a fantasy wide receiver. Not only will he have more opportunities to score fantasy points, but he can focus his efforts both on the field and in the film room on the offensive side of the ball. Hunter’s (6’0, 188) PlayerProfiler comp is Stefon Diggs (6’0, 195), and ranks 3rd overall in Matt Harmon ‘s Reception Perception WR prospect database dating back to 2021. We’ve established that Hunter is talented, but his new teammate, Brian Thomas Jr., is elite in his own right. Last season, both Chris Godwin (8th, 17.8 FPPG) and Mike Evans (15th, 16.1 FPPG) were Top 15 WRs in fantasy points per game in the 5 healthy games they played together under then-OC Liam Coen. Similarly, I’m optimistic that both Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter can produce for fantasy given their competition for targets consists of Dyami Brown, Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange. I had a funny quip written up regarding Gabe Davis’ 52.5 PFF grade last season (worst in the league among qualifying WRs not named Jonathan Mingo) but the Jags released him just as I was editing this post. When it comes to quarterback play, Trevor Lawrence has disappointed to this point in his career, but has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in two of his four seasons as a pro. Lawrence has never had this level of weaponry at his disposal and should benefit from the same quarterback-friendly scheme under Liam Coen that elevated Baker Mayfield to the tune of 264.7 passing yards per game last season, 4th-most among all quarterbacks. A bet on Hunter is a bet on both Coen and Lawrence, and I happen to be a believer in both.

Tetairoa McMillan (Drafted 1.08, 8th overall)

McMillan’s (6’4, 219) PlayerProfiler comp is Drake London (6’4, 213), and many analysts have likewise compared the Panthers’ rookie WR to London. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception points out that while McMillan is a very good prospect, London was an elite one coming out of college. So while there may be similarities to their games, it may be helpful to think of McMillan as a “Drake London Lite”, which can still be great for fantasy. Among 133 qualifying college WRs last season, McMillan finished 8th in PFF grade (84.8). Additionally, he logged 2.87 yards per route run, good for 12th-highest in that group. He utilized his big frame well last season, snagging 18 contested catches, T-5th most in the country. Finally, he’s tough to bring down after the catch - he tied for the 3rd-most missed tackles forced after a reception, per PFF. McMillan lands in Carolina and becomes the de facto WR1 with Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen (who turns 35 in August), and Jalen Coker (2024 undrafted free agent) as his primary target competition. Legette, who was selected with the 32nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, finished T-95th out of 111 qualifying WRs with a PFF grade of 59.3 last season. Thielen has proven to be a reliable target for Bryce Young and Coker pleasantly surprised as a rookie, but Carolina signaled that McMillan is the alpha in this offense when they selected him with the 8th overall pick. We’ve established that McMillan has the path to targets, but does he have the quarterback play? From Week 8 of last season onward, Bryce Young regained the starting job for the Panthers. In that time, he averaged 210.4 passing yards per game, ranking 20th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Additionally, he threw 1.5 TDs and 0.6 INT per game during that span. To be honest, I was a little surprised when I pulled up those stats given all the talk of Bryce Young’s improvement throughout the second half of last season. You could make the case that he wasn’t working with much - Thielen didn’t return to the lineup until Week 12 due to injury - but his passing numbers are far from prolific. Additionally, Young finished 22nd with a PFF grade of 74.4 among 32 qualifying quarterbacks last season. Furthermore, Young has eclipsed 250 passing yards in just 4 of his 28 (14.3%) career games, and surpassed the 300-yard mark in just one of those games (3.6%). Young could certainly take a step forward this year with improved weaponry and another offseason under Dave Canales, but the upside case is a tough sell for me. McMillan is a very good wide receiver and should gobble up a massive target share in this offense, but does that end up being a large slice of a small pie?

Matthew Golden (Drafted 1.23, 23rd overall)

For the first time since 2002, the Green Bay Packers selected a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft. The draft capital alone has me optimistic that Golden’s upside is more than just another member of the Packers’ WR rotation of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Christian Watson (expected to miss majority of ‘25 season). While it’s a solid wide receiver room, there is no clear #1 option soaking up targets. None of those guys ranked higher than 49th (Jayden Reed, 71.7) in PFF grade among 111 qualifying WRs. Golden’s calling card is his speed, clocking a 4.29 40-yard dash time, the 9th-fastest time ever recorded by a wide receiver at the NFL Combine. His 40 time is likely what vaulted him into the first round of the draft, as Golden was not considered an elite prospect. He finished T-66th with a PFF grade of 74.0 out of 133 qualifying college WRs last season. Golden profiles more as a strong downfield threat than a target-hogging alpha, and his (5’11, 191) PlayerProfiler comp is the electric Santana Moss (5’10, 200). Among all wide receivers in the country, Golden tied for the 8th-most deep (20+ yards downfield) receptions last season with 13. That speedy deep threat skillset pairs perfectly with Jordan Love, who attempted the 6th-most deep passes (20+ yards) in 2024 with 74. Additionally, Love tied for the 6th-highest average depth of target (9.2 yards) among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, per PFF. While Golden may not fit the alpha WR1 profile that the Packers’ offense has been lacking, he’s a big play specialist with plenty of opportunity and a quarterback willing and able to throw the deep ball.

Emeka Egbuka (Drafted 1.19, 19th overall)

Coming into the draft, Emeka Egbuka was deemed by the masses to be a pro-ready prospect best suited for a “power slot” role in the NFL. Egbuka’s (6’1, 202) PlayerProfiler comp is Jeremy Maclin (6’0, 198), and he profiles as a player who may be “boring” but can produce right away at the NFL level. Among 133 qualifying WRs, Egbuka finished 26th with a PFF grade of 79.5 last season. Egbuka isn’t particularly fast - his speed score of 98.5 sits in the 68th percentile - but he is a strong athlete with a RAS of 9.72. Unfortunately, he lands in a Buccaneers offense with Mike Evans, a recovering Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan to contend with for targets. While the mid-first round draft capital is strong, the Buccaneers likely selected Egbuka with an eye towards the future rather than an immediate, high-volume role in 2025. Mike Evans turns 32 in August and is entering the final season of the deal he signed last March. Chris Godwin is 29 years old and is recovering from a dislocated ankle that ended his 2024 campaign. While McMillan, a 2024 late 3rd-rounder, impressed as a rookie, the Buccaneers spending the 19th overall pick on Egbuka indicates they were not satisfied with their wide receiver room. In terms of Egbuka’s 2025 role, JJ Zachariason points out on The Late Round Podcast that the Buccaneers don’t really care how a receiver was deployed in college - Jalen McMillan wasn’t utilized in the slot as a rookie despite playing that role at Washington. That’s good news for Egbuka, as he’ll have more opportunities to get on the field in 2025 if he’s not limited to the slot. And opportunities in this offense lead to fantasy production - the Bucs ranked 3rd in both passing yards and receiving fantasy points last season, per FantasyPoints. The bottom line, though, is there are many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay. For Egbuka to pop off in 2025, it would likely take an injury to Mike Evans or a slower-than-expected recovery for Chris Godwin.

That’s all for today. Like I mentioned above, I am super pumped to write about guys like Luther Burden, Tre Harris, and Jack Bech, but alas, we’ve reached the end of the road for this email. Thanks for reading!

Reply to this email and let me know who your favorite of these 4 rookie WRs is!