Rookie Report: 5 WRs That Could Pop Off In ‘25

Today, I’ll break down the fantasy outlook for 5 rookie wide receivers I’m excited about that were selected AFTER the first round of the NFL Draft. If you want to read about Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Matthew Golden, and Emeka Egbuka, check out my previous post. 

I’ve spent the last 40 days learning everything I can about the incoming rookie class. During my research, I relied heavily on a few different tools and metrics that I find super helpful when trying to identify talented players. I’ll be referring to each of the following throughout this post:

PlayerProfiler Comparison: aggregates physical attributes, college production, and workout metrics to find each player’s most similar peer at his position.

Pro Football Focus (PFF Grade): a play-by-play evaluation metric that quantifies how well the player performed individually on each snap, independent of team results or box score stats. 0-100 scale.

Relative Athletic Score (RAS): a metric created by Kent Lee Platte that can easily and intuitively gauge a player’s athletic abilities relative to the position they play. 0-10 scale.

And some other metrics that I’ll explain as I go.

Enough chit chat - let’s break it down.

Tre Harris (Drafted 2.23, 55th overall)

At 6’2, 205 lbs., Tre Harris’ PlayerProfiler comp is Marquez Callaway (6’1, 205). While the Callaway comparison doesn’t get me super excited, Harris is a really solid prospect. Among 133 qualifying CFB WRs last season, Harris finished t-3rd in PFF grade (89.7). Additionally, he led all qualifying WRs in yards per route run with a whopping 5.12(!), per PFF. JJ Zachariason points out in his Late Round Prospect Guide that that mark is the highest ever recorded among Power Five wideouts with 100 or more routes run, dating back to 2014. If that wasn’t enough, Harris also led all qualifying receivers in NFL passer rating when targeted (149.5), per PFF. And while his speed score of 97.8 is just okay (66th percentile), Harris is still a strong athlete with a 9.23 RAS. What really gets me pumped for Harris’ outlook is his landing spot with the Chargers. Harris, who played 86% of his snaps out wide in 2024, pairs perfectly with Ladd McConkey, who plays a majority of his snaps (69.3%) in the slot, per PFF. Plus, outside of McConkey, there’s not a ton of target competition in LA. Quentin Johnston is somewhere between “bad” and “mid”, logging a PFF grade of 67.4, 64th among 111 qualifying WRs last season. Similarly, Mike Williams finished 99th in that group (58.8) and is playing on a 1-year, $6,000,000 deal at age 30. After receiving 2nd-round draft capital, Harris has a clear path to becoming Justin Herbert’s primary outside receiver. Last season, Herbert finished 4th among all quarterbacks with a PFF grade of 91.2, despite having little to work with in terms of weaponry outside of McConkey. And while HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman certainly want to pound the rock, the Chargers actually finished 13th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (1.4%) last season, per FantasyPoints. If you take it a step further and focus only on Weeks 7 through 18, Los Angeles really opened up their passing attack, logging a 4.8% PROE, 6th-highest in the league. When you put it all together - talented prospect, strong quarterback play, and immediate opportunity - you get a potential breakout from Tre Harris in year one.

Luther Burden (Drafted 2.07, 39th overall)

Look, I’m not a film bro. I watched about 4.5 minutes of highlights for every fantasy-relevant player in this class just to get a feel for their game. However, I can say with confidence that the one “film sesh” that stuck with me most was Luther Burden’s. Go watch his highlight reel on YouTube and you’ll see what I mean. This dude is the type of player I just can’t help but fall in love with. He’s a PLAYMAKER, straight up, and he’s absolutely electric with the ball in his hands. At 6’0, 206 lbs., Burden’s PlayerProfiler comp is Sammy Watkins (6’1, 211), another guy who, in his prime, was capable of scoring on any given play. Burden’s best college season was in 2023, when he logged a PFF grade of 88.8, 7th-best among 126 qualifying WRs. While he took a step back in 2024 (77.9 PFF grade, 36th among 133 qualifying WRs), he was still dominant in the open field, finishing t-1st in the nation with 30 missed tackles forced after a reception. With 62.9% of Burden’s targets coming either behind the line of scrimmage or fewer than 10 yards downfield, he finished with an average depth of target of just 9.1 yards in 2024, 102nd among 133 qualifying receivers, per PFF. Additionally, 85.3% of Burden’s 2024 snaps came from the slot. From everything you’ve just read, you may have already reduced Burden to a “gadget slot guy” in terms of his pro potential. But Matt Harmon, who charts the success rate of wide receivers, believes that such an assessment is unfair. While Burden may have been used in “gadgety” ways at Missouri, his 71.2% success rate vs. man coverage (68th percentile) per Reception Perception suggests Burden may not be limited to the slot in the NFL. And if there’s an offensive mind who can maximize Burden’s unique skillset, it’s Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson. I’m not saying Luther Burden is going to be the Bears’ Amon-Ra St. Brown, but I do believe that spending the 39th overall pick on Burden in Johnson’s first draft as head coach signals Chicago’s intent to utilize him right away. It’s a crowded room of pass-catchers with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and first-round rookie TE Colston Loveland to contend with for targets, but you can definitely argue that the target competition isn’t as strong as meets the eye. Odunze disappointed as a rookie, finishing t-77th out of 111 qualifying receivers with a PFF grade of 63.8. His 1.18 yards per route run was good for 83rd in that group, tied with Greg Dortch. DJ Moore didn’t fare much better, logging a career-low YPRR (1.44, 66th of 111 qualifying WRs) and a PFF grade of 73.5 (t-37th among 111 qualifying WRs), the worst such mark since his rookie season. Given the many variables at play - new coach, new scheme, and new weapons, there is a wide range of outcomes here. And when faced with these ambiguous situations in fantasy, I like to bet on talent. I’m a big believer in Luther Burden’s talent, and I’m banking on Ben Johnson’s ability to scheme him the ball in the Bears’ new-look offense.

Jayden Higgins (Drafted 2.02, 34th overall)

To be completely honest with you, I’m not entirely sure what to think of Jayden Higgins. On the one hand, he led all 133 qualifying WRs last season with a PFF grade of 90.3, and at 6’4 214 lbs., he boasts a 9.63 RAS and draws a PlayerProfiler comp of Allen Robinson (6’2, 220). On the other hand, Matt Harmon of Reception Perception notes that given Higgins’ poor success rates vs. man coverage (58.6%, 15th percentile) and press coverage (50.7%, 16th percentile), he is better suited for a “big slot” role in the NFL and could struggle if limited to a perimeter role. However, not only did the Texans trade for Christian Kirk (81.7% slot rate in ‘24) this offseason, they drafted Higgins’ Iowa State teammate Jaylin Noel (69.6% slot rate in ‘24) with the 79th overall pick. So, we have a talented wide receiver in Higgins whose skill set is best suited for the slot, but will likely be deployed as an outside receiver opposite Nico Collins in ‘25. What do we make of that? Well, we know that the quarterback play is there. Stroud disappointed in 2024 following a breakout rookie season, but still managed a 79.9 PFF grade, 13th among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, despite being under pressure at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (38.0% of dropbacks) per FantasyPoints. And we’ve seen what Stroud is capable of doing when his protection is adequate, as he logged a 101.7 passer rating (4th-highest) and 8.2 yards per attempt (2nd-highest) as a rookie among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, per PFF. The Texans’ offensive line remains a question mark after putting up a 65.3 PFF team pass blocking grade in 2024, 21st in the league. They then proceeded to trade away All-Pro LT Laremy Tunsil (89.1 Pass Block grade per PFF last season, 5th-highest among 137 qualifiers) before signing OT Cam Robinson (67.2, 74th), OG Laken Tomlinson (65.1, 87th), and drafting OT Aireontae Ersery in the 2nd round (77.3, t-136th among 444 CFB qualifiers). While Houston canned OC Bobby Slowick, replacing him with former Rams pass game coordinator Nick Caley, I’m not convinced their offensive line issues will be solved by scheme. But if Houston IS able to shore up some of their protection issues, there should be plenty of volume to go around - the Texans had the 5th-highest PROE (4.6%) in the league last season, per FantasyPoints. Between Higgins’ likely role as an outside receiver and Houston’s struggling offensive line, there are key factors dampening his Year 1 outlook. If we zoom out, though, this is a talented wide receiver with strong draft capital attached to CJ Stroud in an offense with plenty of opportunity behind Nico Collins. He’s someone I’m pretty neutral on.

Jack Bech (Drafted 2.26, 58th overall)

The more I learn about Jack Bech, the more in I am on him. While he won’t beat you with speed (his 95.6 speed score sits in the 59th percentile, per PlayerProfiler), Bech wins with hands, technique, and YAC ability. Among 133 qualifying CFB WRs last season, he finished 12th with a PFF grade of 83.0. Bech dropped just one pass last season, resulting in a drop percentage of just 1.6%, the 5th-best mark in the country. Bech’s (6’1, 214) PlayerProfiler comp is Josh Palmer (6’1, 210) and he utilizes his size well - his contested catch rate of 65% was 17th-best among qualifying WRs last season, per PFF. Fun fact - as a freshman at LSU, Bech played some tight end and led a team with Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Trey Palmer, and Kayshon Boutte on the roster in receptions (43). Despite Bech’s lack of top-line speed, he is tough to bring down in the open field, forcing 17 missed tackles after a reception last season, t-24th in the country. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception notes that Bech went down on first contact on just 15% of his “in space” plays, one of the lowest rates he’s ever charted for a prospect. Securing 2nd-round draft capital, Bech will see plenty of opportunity in a Raiders’ wide receiver room that is weak outside of Jakobi Meyers, who finished t-26th in PFF grade (77.7) among 111 qualifying WRs last season. Brock Bowers will certainly command a massive target share, but Bech shouldn’t have any issue immediately cementing himself as the 3rd option in the Raiders’ passing attack. He is versatile and can be deployed both in the slot and on the perimeter, as his slot snap rate at LSU ranged from just 26.8% in 2024 to 95.7% in 2022, per PFF. And with a new 1) regime that spent the 58th overall pick on Bech, 2) head coach in Pete Carroll, and 3) quarterback in Geno Smith, there is certainly upside for Bech to become the number two pass-catcher in Las Vegas. I’m bullish on Jack Bech’s ability to carve out a strong role in a Raiders’ offense that should take a big step forward with competent quarterback play in 2025. 

Kyle Williams (Drafted 3.05, 69th overall)

I debated cutting this list at four receivers and snubbing Kyle Williams until I dug into his profile a bit more. Williams’ (5’11, 190) PlayerProfiler comp is Rashod Bateman (6’0, 190) and, despite his smaller frame, profiles as an outside wide receiver (just a 25.3% slot rate in ‘24) who should play opposite Stefon Diggs in the Patriots’ offense. With an unexciting 6.34 RAS, Williams is not a superb athlete, and he is quick (4.40 40-yard dash, 92nd percentile) but not super fast for his size (98.6 speed score, 68th percentile, per PlayerProfiler). His lack of elite athleticism did not hold him back on the field, however, as he finished 23rd among 133 qualifying receivers in PFF grade (79.9) in 2024. What most stood out to me, though, is his ability after the catch. His 8.4 yards after catch per reception was the 2nd-highest mark in the country, and his 21 missed tackles forced was tied for 14th, per PFF. Williams’ competition is a 31-year old Stefon Diggs recovering from a torn ACL, slot specialist Demario Douglas (79% slot rate in ‘24), and a bunch of guys in Kayshon Boutte (61.4 PFF grade, 90th of 111 qualifiers), Kendrick Bourne (62.1, 87th) Mack Hollins (61.6, 89th), Ja’Lynn Polk (43.1 PFF grade), and Javon Baker (52.5). Among that group, Douglas (70.0, t-54th) and Diggs (79.0) are the only legitimate target-earners, and Hunter Henry (73.4 PFF receiving grade, 12th among 45 qualifying TEs) will certainly get his looks as well. But, let’s be real here - this offense lacks legitimate weapons. If Kyle Williams proves himself to be one at the NFL level, what’s stopping him from earning tons of opportunity under a new coaching staff that selected him in the 3rd round? Plus, he’s tied to Drake Maye, who showed plenty of promise as a rookie and is expected to take a step forward in his first full season as the Patriots’ starter. I’m not sold on Williams as being some awesome prospect, but he flashes big play potential and will have every opportunity to produce in an offense starving for playmakers. 

Boom - that’s all for today. Thank you so much for reading and for being a Moves subscriber!

Talk soon.

-Stephen